As global trade policy once again takes center stage — with renewed tensions, shifting tariff regimes, and regulatory uncertainty — PeakSpan Capital convened a virtual roundtable with leading supply chain executives to understand the on-the-ground impact and future outlook. What unfolded was a dynamic, honest conversation around real-time pain points, evolving mitigation strategies, and where global commerce might be headed.

Participants in this roundtable included members of PeakSpan’s Expert Community, as well as Jack Freeman and Kyle Reitinger, who lead supply chain and e-commerce investments at PeakSpan, respectively.

Meet the Panelists

• Gregory Javor — SVP of Global Supply Chain Operations at Mattel, overseeing global logistics and procurement. With past leadership roles at Starbucks and deep experience across 3PLs, Greg brought a big-brand, big-volume perspective — particularly from the toy industry.
• Opal Portis — VP of Supply Chain at TechStyle Fashion Group, which operates brands like Fabletics and JustFab. She manages everything from logistics, quality assurance, trade compliance, sustainability and vendor compliance — offering a fashion and apparel lens on tariff impacts.
• Bill Broyles — A supply chain leader in the toy manufacturing sector, Bill represents a smaller, independent player in the industry, Elenco, wrestling firsthand with cash flow pressures and limited flexibility.
• Matt Hertz — Founder of Third Person, a matchmaking platform for brands and 3PLs. Formerly with Birchbox and Rent the Runway, Matt consults across e-commerce and logistics, with a pulse on both macro trends and scrappy operator tactics (Matt has an A+ newsletter on ecommerce logistics if interested: https://logistics.beehiiv.com/)
• Nabil Malouli — VP of E-Commerce Operations & Returns at DHL, overseeing global warehousing, middle mile, and reverse logistics. Nabil’s global lens and experience living in China offered valuable macroeconomic context.

1. Current State of Play: How Tariffs Are Disrupting Operations

Across the board, panelists emphasized the disruptive and unpredictable nature of tariffs –especially for businesses that source from China. Mattel’s Greg Javor explained that while the company anticipated potential trade disruption and began shifting production to Vietnam years ago, tariffs at 145% are simply untenable. While they’ve paused some shipments from China, lead times and capacity constraints in alternate geographies create downstream planning chaos.

Smaller brands, like Bill Broyles’ toy company, face a graver reality: tariffs threaten to wipe out cash flow and shutter operations. “If this continues for months, hundreds of small toy businesses could go under,” Bill warned.

TechStyle’s Opal Portis added that the fashion industry is being squeezed from both ends — tariffs on one side, and sustainability regulations on the other, especially those requiring supply chain traceability and transparency for secondhand markets.

DHL’s Nabil Malouli distilled the response patterns into five archetypes:

1. Wait-and-see

2. Price-passing

3. Paused deliveries

4. Supplier shifts

5. Inventory mode changes.

Larger enterprises can afford to pause or diversify; smaller ones often cannot, leaving them exposed.

2. Strategies to Reduce Impact: From Bonded Warehouses to First Sale Optimization

Faced with such volatility, companies are deploying a diverse array of mitigation strategies:

• Inventory Triage: several companies have accelerated clearance of inventory benefiting from de minimis thresholds before policies shifted.
• Customer Communication: Fabletics has been highlighted recently for providing transparency to customers as they deal with rising tariffs.
• Pricing & Packaging: Elenco raised prices on legacy inventory while redesigning lower-cost SKUs in anticipation of continued tariffs and more price-sensitive consumers.
• Sourcing Shifts: Greg detailed Mattel’s aggressive ramp-up in India and Vietnam, although capacity is tight and switching costs are high.
• Bonded & FTZ Warehousing: Both Matt and Nabil mentioned the surge in demand for bonded warehouses and FTZs (Foreign Trade Zones), though with significant constraints on space and rising fees.
• Digital Modeling: DHL is helping large customers simulate production scenarios with digital twins, stress-testing supplier bases and inventory strategies.
• Customs Optimization: Strategies like “first sale rule” invoicing and consolidated customs clearance (e.g., DHL’s Breakbulk Express) are helping reduce duty exposure for some.

Still, the consensus was clear: no silver bullet exists. Brands must layer multiple tactics, adapt quickly, and hedge against worst-case scenarios.

3. Where Are We Headed? Predicting the Next Chapter of Trade Policy

No one on the call dared to predict the exact outcome of current trade negotiations, but most agreed on one thing: it’s too soon to make irreversible moves. The noise-to-signal ratio remains high, and sudden shifts in policy could make hasty decisions costly.

That said, if the current tariff regime holds — or worsens — participants expect a wave of business failures, particularly among small brands dependent on low-cost Chinese manufacturing. “If you’re a $50M brand,” Nabil noted, “you likely don’t have 20 sourcing experts ready to spin up India or Mexico overnight.”

Panelists expect high-cost stopgaps like bonded warehousing to persist until decisions become clearer, after which we’ll likely see permanent shifts in sourcing geographies. Some, like Mattel, are already down this path. For others, a reckoning may be coming.

4. Reimagining the Future of Commerce: Tariffs as a Catalyst for Change?

In the final minutes, the group explored a deeper question: if tariffs are the new normal, how might commerce itself change?

Jack posited a contrarian view: tariffs and de minimis restrictions could reverse the long trend of hyper-personalization and abundance in e-commerce. Perhaps retail isn’t dead after all.

Responses were mixed but largely optimistic:

• Greg and Opal expect e-commerce to remain dominant, noting Amazon’s outsized role in future warehouse builds and consumers’ expectations for convenience.
• Bill pointed to the resilience of omnichannel and the rise of alternative tactics like print catalogs — evidence that variety and flexibility still matter.
• Matt and Nabil see AI-driven personalization, automation, and logistics innovation fueling even more e-commerce growth, not less.
• Everyone agreed that shipping policies will evolve. Free returns may shrink, delivery thresholds may rise, and consumers will increasingly absorb cost tradeoffs.

Ultimately, while tariffs bring pain and uncertainty, they also expose fragility, spark creativity, and might just accelerate a new phase of operational resilience across global commerce.

As Matt Hertz aptly put it, “There is no left-turn-right-turn shortcut to tariff Nirvana.” But those who adapt — those who treat tariffs as not just a cost but a catalyst — may emerge stronger and more competitive in the long run.